Tue, Mar 23, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 4, Arizona Coyotes 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 110 | 111 | 07 | 1 | 439 |
| ARI | 28 | 011 | 210 | 03 | 3 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Lawson Crouse, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 4:52ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Phil Kessel, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 14:47COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P1 18:49COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:49COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 5:28COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 6:38ARILawson CrouseAssists: John Hayden, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 8:41ARIPhil KesselAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 2. COL Joonas Donskoi scored
- 3. ARI Conor Garland scored
- 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 5. ARI Christian Dvorak scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:16ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11COLTyson Jost: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:56COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:07COLDan Renouf: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:57ARIConor Garland: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:13ARIJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:11ARINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nichushkin – Jost8:35
xG 0.70–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:02
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Calvert – Bellemare – O'Connor7:54
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:32
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard3:08
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Girard – MacDonald9:19
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Graves – Girard4:32
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Hunt – Garland7:58
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Crouse7:37
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Keller8:07
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Hayden – Schmaltz – Fischer5:30
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun15:43
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 3–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin12:43
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).