Mon, May 10, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 113 | 07 | 12 | 435 |
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 110 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32MTLJake EvansAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:52EDMJames NealAssists: Ryan McLeod, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:29EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:56MTLPaul ByronAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jake Evans · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 9:26EDMDominik KahunAssists: Connor McDavid, Caleb Jones · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 13:04MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jake Evans, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:42EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:38EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:25MTLJoel Armia: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:43EDMJames Neal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Khaira won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Chiasson – McLeod8:22
xG 0.42–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:47
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- McDavid – Puljujarvi – Kahun10:37
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Archibald – Shore – Khaira12:19
xG 0.08–0.58 (12%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bear – Jones14:27
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:57
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse16:36
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Perry – Caufield10:25
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans10:37
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Tatar – Armia – Kotkaniemi5:10
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Anderson – Suzuki10:06
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson17:38
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Kulak17:32
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Merrill – Kulak2:52
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).