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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:55Shot by Zub, saved by Campbell
  3. P1 1:28Shot by Bogosian, saved by Forsberg
  4. P1 3:51Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg
  5. P1 4:06Shot by Tavares, saved by Forsberg
  6. P1 4:07Shot by Tavares, saved by Forsberg
  7. P1 4:36Shot by Batherson, saved by Campbell
  8. P1 5:47Shot by Hyman, saved by Forsberg
  9. P1 5:51Shot by Spezza, saved by Forsberg
  10. P1 7:08Shot by Matthews, saved by Forsberg
  11. P1 7:09Chabot: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, White, Chabot, Zaitsev · TOR Simmonds, Bogosian, Dermott, Marner, Matthews

  12. P1 7:23Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg4v5
  13. P1 9:13Shot by Tavares, saved by Forsberg
  14. P1 10:44Shot by White, saved by Campbell
  15. P1 11:59Tavares: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Coburn, Brown, Brown, Paul, White · TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Galchenyuk, Nylander

  16. P1 14:03Shot by Brodie, saved by Forsberg
  17. P1 14:19Shot by Rielly, saved by Forsberg
  18. P1 14:46Brown: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, White, Chabot, Zaitsev · TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Marner, Matthews

  19. P1 15:31Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg4v5
  20. P1 15:35Matthews: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Paul, Zaitsev, Formenton, Zub · TOR Thornton, Simmonds, Rielly, Marner, Matthews

  21. P1 15:44Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Campbell4v4
  22. P1 17:13Chabot: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: OTT Dadonov, Chabot, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Mikheyev

  23. P1 17:39Shot by Zub, saved by Campbell4v5
  24. P1 18:21Shot by Formenton, saved by Campbell4v5
  25. P1 18:53Goal by Brown (Tierney)4v5+18 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Tierney, Brown, Brown, Zaitsev · TOR Spezza, Brodie, Tavares, Hyman, Nylander

  26. P1 19:33Shot by Norris, saved by Campbell
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:53Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg
  30. P2 1:06Shot by Muzzin, saved by Forsberg
  31. P2 1:44Shot by Nylander, saved by Forsberg
  32. P2 1:48Shot by Bogosian, saved by Forsberg
  33. P2 2:26Shot by Tierney, saved by Campbell
  34. P2 2:36Shot by Coburn, saved by Campbell
  35. P2 2:48Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Forsberg
  36. P2 3:33Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell
  37. P2 4:25Shot by Stützle, saved by Campbell
  38. P2 4:51Shot by Dermott, saved by Forsberg
  39. P2 5:54Shot by Stützle, saved by Campbell
  40. P2 6:45Shot by Dadonov, saved by Campbell
  41. P2 7:06Shot by Norris, saved by Campbell
  42. P2 7:11Shot by Chabot, saved by Campbell
  43. P2 7:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Forsberg
  44. P2 8:36Shot by Holl, saved by Forsberg
  45. P2 8:59Shot by Spezza, saved by Forsberg
  46. P2 9:12Shot by Bishop, saved by Campbell
  47. P2 9:43Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell
  48. P2 10:01Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Forsberg
  49. P2 12:11Shot by Rielly, saved by Forsberg
  50. P2 14:40Goal by Mikheyev (Brodie, Hyman)+22 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Dadonov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk · TOR Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Engvall, Mikheyev

  51. P2 15:31Shot by Holl, saved by Forsberg
  52. P2 16:20Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Forsberg
  53. P2 16:25Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Forsberg
  54. P2 16:28Shot by Rielly, saved by Forsberg
  55. P2 16:37Shot by Stützle, saved by Campbell
  56. P2 17:06Shot by Dzingel, saved by Campbell
  57. P2 17:48Shot by Chabot, saved by Campbell
  58. P2 17:52Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Campbell
  59. P2 17:54Rielly: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Dadonov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk · TOR Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Engvall, Mikheyev

  60. P2 18:40Shot by Hyman, saved by Forsberg5v4
  61. P2 19:13Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell5v4
  62. P2 19:14Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell5v4
  63. P2 0:00Period end
  64. P3 0:00Period start
  65. P3 3:42Shot by Holl, saved by Forsberg
  66. P3 4:08Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg
  67. P3 5:34Shot by Engvall, saved by Forsberg
  68. P3 8:41Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg
  69. P3 10:21Shot by Formenton, saved by Campbell
  70. P3 10:33Shot by Simmonds, saved by Forsberg
  71. P3 10:41Goal by Spezza (Kerfoot)+35 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Dadonov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk · TOR Thornton, Spezza, Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot

  72. P3 10:57Shot by Brown, saved by Campbell
  73. P3 13:14Goal by Formenton (Bishop, Dzingel)+38 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Coburn, Dzingel, Brown, Bishop, Formenton · TOR Thornton, Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Kerfoot

  74. P3 15:12Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell
  75. P3 15:38Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Campbell
  76. P3 16:10Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Forsberg
  77. P3 17:50Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Forsberg
  78. P3 19:04Shot by Batherson, saved by Campbell
  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. OT 0:00Period start
  81. OT 0:25Shot by Marner, saved by Forsberg3v3
  82. OT 0:27Shot by Matthews, saved by Forsberg3v3
  83. OT 1:14Shot by Tavares, saved by Forsberg3v3
  84. OT 2:52Shot by Norris, saved by Campbell3v3
  85. OT 4:42Goal by Holl (Marner, Matthews)3v3+47 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Formenton, Batherson · TOR Holl, Marner, Matthews

  86. OT 4:42Period end4v4
  87. OT 4:42Final