Thu, Mar 25, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 214 | 19 | 327 |
| DAL | 011 | 321 | 19 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:46TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Cal Foote, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 5:58TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 10:54DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 18:40DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 19:44DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 15:10TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Yanni Gourde, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 18:39DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:31TBLLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P2 17:14DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:14TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:33TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:32TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde9:45
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli10:01
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Maroon – Gourde – Joseph3:12
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point11:59
xG 0.58–1.10 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sergachev – Foote19:25
xG 0.84–0.95 (47%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
- Schenn – Borgman7:58
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta17:58
xG 1.01–1.68 (37%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dickinson – Gurianov11:22
xG 0.87–0.24 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa12:45
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Dowling – Gardner – L'Esperance5:05
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:40
xG 0.49–0.99 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:17
xG 1.28–0.88 (59%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Hanley10:55
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen15:11
xG 0.96–0.83 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).