Sat, Mar 27, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 07 | 14 | 322 |
| CAR | 012 | 314 | 114 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12TBLBlake ColemanAssists: Jan Rutta, Barclay Goodrow · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:41TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 2:24CARCedric PaquetteAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:26CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:44CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 0:22TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 16:07CARMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:17CARCedric Paquette: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:51CARDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P1 12:01TBLAndreas Borgman: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:20TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:03CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03TBLBlake Coleman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:03CARNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:41TBLBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:08TBLAlex Killorn: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:39TBLAndreas Borgman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:35CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Geekie won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:29
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton7:54
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point10:33
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde7:53
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgman – Rutta3:00
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Schenn – Borgman7:38
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Hedman – Rutta10:44
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Aho – Necas9:29
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov4:58
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Martinook – McGinn6:44
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie4:07
xG 0.06–0.68 (8%)attempts 1–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin10:49
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Skjei – Slavin2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Fleury – Bean8:09
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).