Sat, Mar 27, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 310 | 05 | 01 | 320 |
| TOR | 010 | 110 | 210 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:14TORPierre EngvallAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:47EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:05EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 18:06EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 12:21TORJohn TavaresAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, William Nylander · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 16:38TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Justin Holl, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 0:54TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:55TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:54EDMEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:39EDMDevin Shore: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi16:47
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Chiasson – Shore – Khaira5:34
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Archibald – Haas9:25
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto – Kahun10:59
xG 0.13–0.58 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse18:46
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Nurse – Bear2:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Russell – Bear14:09
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander3:34
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews8:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Galchenyuk – Kerfoot4:49
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Tavares – Nylander7:37
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl18:22
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 20–14goals 3–2
- Brodie – Rielly18:51
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dermott12:22
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).