Wed, May 5, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 07 | 014 | 131 |
| OTT | 111 | 217 | 26 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35OTTShane PintoAssists: Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 19:28MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:44OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Josh Norris, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 19:52OTTNick PaulAssists: Erik Brannstrom · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 4:40OTTConnor BrownAssists: Artem Zub, Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:19OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Nick Paul, Colin White · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:31MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:55MTLJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:01OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:01MTLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:04OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Perry – Frolik11:58
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Anderson – Suzuki3:11
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Armia – Danault – Caufield3:10
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – Evans – Kotkaniemi9:27
xG 0.32–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Romanov15:44
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Petry – Edmundson16:48
xG 0.97–1.42 (40%)attempts 24–14goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Kulak15:24
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Pinto – Stützle11:37
xG 0.75–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:48
xG 0.94–0.65 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Paul – White – Formenton9:18
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – Abramov8:14
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub16:36
xG 1.61–0.56 (74%)attempts 17–15goals 3–0
- Mete – Zaitsev17:50
xG 0.92–0.37 (71%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Bernard-Docker – Alsing11:11
xG 0.15–0.69 (17%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).