Sun, Apr 4, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 16 | 212 | 430 |
| CGY | 211 | 013 | 010 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:43CGYJoakim NordstromAssists: Mark Giordano, Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:20CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:08TORAlex GalchenyukAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:55TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 9:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 1:31TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:17CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander10:38
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev9:11
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews14:33
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot8:01
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:27
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 18–14goals 4–1
- Muzzin – Holl17:22
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott11:41
xG 0.34–0.72 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Mangiapane12:03
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Bennett – Ryan9:28
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube12:12
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan13:23
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stone – Nesterov12:52
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:46
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–3
- Hanifin – Andersson2:34
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).