Thu, Apr 8, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 26 | 213 | 532 |
| NYR | 05 | 110 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26PITRadim ZohornaAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:02NYRColin BlackwellPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kaapo Kakko · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 3:23PITKris LetangAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 11:28PITEvan RodriguesPPGWGAssists: Radim Zohorna, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 10:29PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 13:48NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:29PITMark JankowskiENAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:21NYRJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:18PITMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:17PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:24PITJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:18NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18PITSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:18NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:14NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:14PITSam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:59PITCody Ceci: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:55NYRAdam Fox: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:41PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:07NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lafferty – Aston-Reese6:42
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Zohorna6:22
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:30
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Zucker – McCann – Rodrigues9:50
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino9:24
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Matheson – Pettersson3:11
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:36
xG 0.53–0.42 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Blackwell – Rooney – Howden4:49
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kravtsov6:47
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin3:05
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:06
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Miller15:40
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren13:50
xG 0.50–0.70 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Smith – Hajek8:56
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).