Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 311 | 211 | 532 |
| TOR | 213 | 216 | 29 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:31TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:02OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 13:49OTTAlex FormentonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 16:25OTTTim StützleAssists: Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 16:52TORMitch MarnerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P2 19:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 4:44TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Zach Hyman, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 7:43OTTConnor BrownAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 19:33TORZach HymanENGWGAssists: John Tavares, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–6
- P3 19:43OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:24TORAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:39OTTThomas Chabot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:38TORJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Bishop – Formenton2:21
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Tierney – Brown6:37
xG 0.24–0.22 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Dzingel – Brown – Bishop2:39
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Amadio – Batherson – Stützle9:08
xG 0.76–1.04 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Brannstrom10:48
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev18:24
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Marner – Matthews14:45
xG 1.41–0.51 (73%)attempts 15–13goals 4–1
- Tavares – Hyman – Mikheyev14:20
xG 1.04–0.34 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Barabanov9:58
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot9:05
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:36
xG 1.33–0.50 (73%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Dermott11:16
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Bogosian2:04
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).