Mon, Apr 12, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 03 | 213 | 09 | 225 |
| MTL | 211 | 17 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17MTLTomas TatarAssists: Paul Byron, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:53MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Shea Weber, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:28TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:57TORJohn TavaresAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:22MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 17:35MTLTomas TatarENAssists: Paul Byron, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:33TORZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:58TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:04MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anderson won the faceoff against Hyman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Mikheyev11:34
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Galchenyuk – Marner – Matthews11:07
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Robertson5:14
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot5:57
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodie2:14
xG 0.55–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dermott8:24
xG 0.64–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl16:58
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi11:26
xG 0.92–0.19 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Perry – Lehkonen7:00
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Evans – Suzuki9:33
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Byron – Tatar – Danault11:10
xG 0.48–0.65 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Romanov10:28
xG 0.61–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Petry2:07
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Kulak12:03
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).