Thu, Apr 15, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 313 | 15 | 530 |
| WSH | 18 | 19 | 012 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Dylan Cozens, Henri Jokiharju · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:37WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:36BUFVictor OlofssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:42BUFCasey MittelstadtSHGWGAssists: Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 9:59WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 13:23BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 19:17BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:48WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 3:45BUFMatt Irwin: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:35BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:34BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:01BUFMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:01WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:38WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Olofsson7:59
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen9:34
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Asplund2:33
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:09
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:20
xG 1.05–0.60 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Irwin – Miller11:56
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Bryson13:47
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:52
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – Sprong8:06
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Sprong2:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha11:14
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov13:09
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Dillon2:02
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen11:04
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).