Thu, Apr 15, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 38 | 011 | 25 | 524 |
| TOR | 17 | 111 | 015 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41TORAlex GalchenyukAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–1
- P1 10:45WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 11:12WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 13:54WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 6:47TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jason Spezza, Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 5:34WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:23WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Paul Stastny, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:45WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min
- P1 7:34WPGDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:36TORZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:08TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:53WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Copp – Ehlers11:16
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins7:29
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton9:03
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois13:39
xG 0.30–0.91 (25%)attempts 10–10goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk17:44
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 17–19goals 3–0
- DeMelo – Heinola12:10
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey13:50
xG 0.47–0.79 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Galchenyuk – Marner10:02
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 1–3
- Thornton – Simmonds – Engvall7:54
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Brooks – Robertson5:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev9:07
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly15:15
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dermott11:32
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Rielly – Dermott2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).