Sat, Apr 17, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 213 | 016 | 341 |
| BUF | 06 | 113 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30PITJared McCannAssists: Mike Matheson, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:57PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:41BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:15PITBryan RustPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 11:44BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:31BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:30BUFAnders Bjork: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:54PITMark Jankowski: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Zucker – McCann10:27
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Zohorna6:11
xG 0.17–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese11:08
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:33
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino13:47
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ceci16:20
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:54
xG 0.60–0.81 (42%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Olofsson13:12
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen11:45
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:44
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Fogarty7:03
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin17:59
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Irwin – Miller11:43
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Irwin – Ristolainen2:23
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).