Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 311 | 111 | 110 | 532 |
| TBL | 115 | 17 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41FLABrandon MontourAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:31FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Nikita Gusev · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P1 13:40TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 19:52FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 17:34FLAFrank VatranoGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 19:15TBLErik CernakAssists: Blake Coleman, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 1:53TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:10FLAAnthony DuclairENAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:57FLABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:32FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:47TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:01TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGusev – Barkov – Marchment11:57
xG 0.68–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett10:33
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Lammikko – Wallmark – Tippett7:43
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano9:15
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Nutivaara2:22
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Montour – Nutivaara13:18
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 3–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Colton7:30
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Barré-Boulet11:48
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli4:20
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton3:18
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Savard12:22
xG 0.78–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev7:55
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak2:33
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).