Wed, Apr 21, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 17 | 37 | 423 |
| ARI | 114 | 017 | 09 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Lane Pederson, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:58MINKevin FialaAssists: Nico Sturm, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 4:32MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:20MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:48MINNico SturmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:31MINCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:00ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:15
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov12:34
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala12:04
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm8:39
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Soucy13:44
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba20:11
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:45
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Bunting – Keller13:46
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Larsson – Hayden – Hunt9:58
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Fischer – Pederson8:05
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – Dvorak – Crouse10:50
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Chychrun18:20
xG 1.09–0.27 (80%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Lyubushkin11:04
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:44
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).