Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 118 | 19 | 437 |
| WPG | 111 | 06 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Stastny, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:04TORJoe ThorntonAssists: Jason Spezza, Adam Brooks · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 11:40TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:07TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 18:30TORAlexander KerfootENAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:02TORAlex Galchenyuk: Holding2 min
- P1 19:04WPGKyle Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:48TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P2 5:48WPGDylan DeMelo: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:19WPGMathieu Perreault: Charging2 min
- P2 11:29TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:07WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P3 1:44WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:06TORJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:17TORJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:17WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:17WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:17TORWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Marner – Matthews8:45
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander8:26
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Spezza – Brooks5:54
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev7:55
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:40
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Dermott – Sandin5:47
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Rielly – Sandin3:56
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Stastny – Ehlers – Dubois10:48
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins5:58
xG 0.06–0.17 (24%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perreault – Copp – Appleton3:55
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:49
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley9:16
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Stanley – Pionk2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:26
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).