Wed, Apr 28, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 111 | 111 | 429 |
| MTL | 011 | 113 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 8:44TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 6:27TORJake MuzzinAssists: Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 15:15MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Jeff Petry, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:15TORAdam BrooksAssists: Jason Spezza, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:59MTLTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:45TORJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:10MTLJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:48TORAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:05MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Marner – Matthews12:14
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev10:33
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Brooks7:12
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander10:31
xG 0.03–0.55 (5%)attempts 1–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl16:27
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Dermott – Sandin12:52
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:51
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield8:37
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Frolik – Evans7:09
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Lehkonen8:53
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Armia – Kotkaniemi10:56
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Edmundson14:58
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Merrill – Romanov13:23
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Weber – Chiarot15:05
xG 0.20–0.43 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).