Wed, Apr 28, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 114 | 03 | 230 |
| SJS | 38 | 010 | 113 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12SJSEvander KaneAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:06SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Logan Couture, John Leonard · Backhand, 0.60 xG0–2
- P1 14:08SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Alexander True, Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
- P1 15:47ARIPhil KesselAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 4:40ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:23SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Mario Ferraro, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:32SJSBrinson Pasichnuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:10ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:18SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:02SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:03ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:27ARIJason Demers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:44ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:34SJSErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schmaltz won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Hunt – Fischer5:07
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Dvorak2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Crouse6:10
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Bunting – Keller11:40
xG 0.39–0.74 (35%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Demers11:37
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun17:08
xG 0.54–1.10 (33%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin13:28
xG 0.23–1.15 (17%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Balcers – Leonard10:21
xG 0.90–0.11 (89%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Kane – Hertl – Barabanov11:35
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Labanc – Gregor – True9:43
xG 0.87–0.40 (69%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Marleau – Meier – Blichfeld7:57
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro14:44
xG 1.69–0.20 (89%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:35
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Pasichnuk8:25
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).