Mon, May 3, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 110 | 015 | 236 |
| BUF | 09 | 114 | 317 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15NYIAdam PelechAssists: Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:42NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Adam Pelech, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 14:04BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 11:25BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Sam Reinhart, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 15:56BUFSam ReinhartGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:08BUFSam ReinhartENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:34NYILeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:29NYILeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:32NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier12:35
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:51
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Wahlstrom9:42
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal8:35
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock14:27
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Greene – Mayfield2:32
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dobson3:32
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Bjork – Olofsson6:32
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson6:51
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:36
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Skinner – Caggiula2:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Samuelsson15:21
xG 1.03–0.37 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Borgen – Bryson13:28
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:33
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).