Tue, May 4, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 121 | 28 | 018 | 01 | 0 | 348 |
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 111 | 00 | 1 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:59BUFCody EakinAssists: Jeff Skinner, Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:25NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:44NYIRyan PulockAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:16NYICal ClutterbuckSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:37BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Colin Miller, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 10:56BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. BUF Anders Bjork scored
- 4. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 5. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 6. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 18:36BUFVictor Olofsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:19NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:53
xG 1.06–0.26 (80%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom10:36
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston9:33
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Zajac – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:22
xG 1.24–0.31 (80%)attempts 30–12goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield17:31
xG 1.22–1.05 (54%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
- Leddy – Dobson2:10
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Bjork – Olofsson14:02
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Eakin – Skinner – Caggiula10:47
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt13:05
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Cozens – Ruotsalainen9:10
xG 0.41–1.41 (22%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson13:20
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (2%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson18:45
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).