Thu, Oct 14, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 017 | 06 | 225 | 248 |
| OTT | 312 | 014 | 010 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31OTTChris TierneyAssists: Nick Holden, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 18:58OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 19:59OTTAlex FormentonGWGAssists: Victor Mete · Slap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 3:11TORJason SpezzaPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 8:50TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:45OTTLogan Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:08TORWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:23TORJake Muzzin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:29OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:11OTTJoshua Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:42TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:14OTTChris Tierney: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:18TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Marner4:35
xG 0.98–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf5:07
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Amadio4:18
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Bunting6:29
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Sandin9:54
xG 0.91–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:48
xG 0.92–0.86 (52%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
- Brodie – Rielly14:37
xG 0.71–1.66 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Sanford – Kelly2:57
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Sanford – Kelly2:27
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Stützle11:55
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – Pinto13:07
xG 0.82–0.96 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brown11:23
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mete – Zaitsev10:42
xG 1.11–1.06 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub18:41
xG 1.10–1.17 (48%)attempts 17–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).