Thu, Oct 14, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Detroit Red Wings 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 316 | 314 | 13 | 748 |
| DET | 18 | 312 | 26 | 00 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:00DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 0:18DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Nick Leddy, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:52DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Adam Erne, Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
- P2 8:08TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:29DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.28 xG1–4
- P2 15:19TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.18 xG2–4
- P2 16:31TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 4:35DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Moritz Seider, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 7:10DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.27 xG3–6
- P3 13:43TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Erik Cernak · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–6
- P3 16:25TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.12 xG5–6
- P3 17:41TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–6
- OT 2:43TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.18 xG7–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:58TBLTaylor Raddysh: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 8:41DETGivani Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:43TBLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:43DETGivani Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:46TBLAndrej Sustr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:34DETFilip Zadina: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:34TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:40TBLMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:40DETDylan Larkin: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P2 19:41DETGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41TBLMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:25DETTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21TBLOndrej Palat: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:19DETSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:49DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point10:57
xG 0.96–0.01 (99%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton6:53
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:37
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Joseph – Raddysh3:15
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta11:58
xG 1.41–0.76 (65%)attempts 21–6goals 1–2
- McDonagh – Cernak10:20
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:07
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Stephens – Smith2:12
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen3:35
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Raymond3:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Rasmussen3:10
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Lindstrom8:51
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek9:22
xG 0.42–0.71 (37%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
- Leddy – Seider7:44
xG 0.14–0.45 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).