Tue, Oct 19, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 19 | 311 | 432 |
| TBL | 010 | 06 | 115 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:12FLABrandon MontourPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 2:36TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Jan Rutta · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:40FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 13:19FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:54FLAAnthony DuclairENAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:35TBLErik Cernak: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:10FLAJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:36FLAAnton Lundell: Holding2 min
- P2 4:11TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 7:01TBLBrayden Point: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:57FLAOwen Tippett: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:38FLASam Reinhart: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:49FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:02FLAKevin Connauton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov8:12
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett7:51
xG 0.15–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Hornqvist – Marchment2:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell7:19
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:09
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Connauton – Montour7:39
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling14:36
xG 0.33–0.81 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Point3:49
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Bellemare – Katchouk – Raddysh7:24
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:44
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev3:44
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Hedman – Rutta9:21
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Sustr – Sergachev7:01
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).