Mon, Oct 25, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 3, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 11 | 07 | 213 | 321 |
| FLA | 111 | 220 | 210 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:43ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 19:41FLAJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 6:00FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Brandon Montour, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 10:19FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 6:54FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 11:57ARILiam O'BrienAssists: Christian Fischer, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 12:31ARIPhil KesselAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:21FLAAnthony DuclairENAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:22ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12ARIRyan Dzingel: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12ARIRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12ARIRyan Dzingel: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 10:55FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:47FLAMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:47ARIVictor Soderstrom: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Jaskin2:57
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ladd – Beagle – Dzingel5:15
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kessel – Jaskin – Schmaltz6:48
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Crouse – Keller8:49
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Lyubushkin2:09
xG 0.12–0.10 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Soderstrom2:08
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Soderstrom13:48
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Hornqvist – Vatrano10:19
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:17
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett9:37
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Reinhart – Marchment – Luostarinen12:04
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Montour11:55
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Gudas – Forsling15:23
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad16:28
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).