Sun, Oct 31, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 012 | 03 | 123 |
| CAR | 013 | 114 | 112 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44ARIChristian FischerAssists: Lawson Crouse, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:57CARMartin NecasAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jordan Martinook · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 17:33CARBrett PescePPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:20ARIDmitrij Jaskin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:43CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:41ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:51ARIAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51CARTony DeAngelo: Embellishment2 min
- P2 4:27CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:57ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:43CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:16ARIJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Fischer4:47
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Jaskin11:29
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Ladd – Beagle – O'Brien7:15
xG 0.03–0.59 (4%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Crouse – Keller – Hayton9:16
xG 0.22–1.06 (17%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Gostisbehere8:48
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Soderstrom2:13
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Mayo – Chychrun14:41
xG 0.53–0.81 (39%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov3:58
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Svechnikov8:12
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Martinook – Necas7:14
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Jarvis4:54
xG 0.70–0.32 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear14:18
xG 1.12–0.39 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Cole – DeAngelo9:21
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:05
xG 0.88–0.74 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).