Mon, Nov 1, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 012 | 110 | 233 |
| TBL | 08 | 212 | 16 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13WSHBrett LeasonAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 3:18TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:40TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Alex Barré-Boulet, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 2:56TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 11:38WSHConor ShearyPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:55WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:25TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:46TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:03WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 3:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P3 7:26TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 11:23TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:34TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:34WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Sprong – McMichael5:42
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:55
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Sheary – Leason – Protas3:39
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway5:37
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry12:17
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen13:48
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:22
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Colton10:13
xG 1.05–0.41 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph5:50
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Point – Cirelli13:23
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Bellemare – Raddysh – Barré-Boulet4:04
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Foote3:23
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote3:23
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote2:34
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).