Thu, Nov 4, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 08 | 08 | 00 | 125 |
| TOR | 09 | 013 | 17 | 15 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:16TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Corey Perry, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 19:18TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- OT 2:43TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:58TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:48TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:48TBLMikhail Sergachev: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 16:03TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03TBLRoss Colton: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 0:57TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Point – Cirelli12:10
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Barré-Boulet10:37
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton7:37
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Joseph – Raddysh10:28
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak16:33
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote7:05
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote2:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Ritchie5:36
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander3:24
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews7:04
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf9:11
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin13:39
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Brodie17:14
xG 0.92–1.01 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Rielly – Dermott16:43
xG 0.66–1.08 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).