Mon, Nov 8, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 19 | 213 | 328 |
| WSH | 112 | 29 | 29 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:30WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Justin Schultz, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:43BUFCody EakinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 8:55WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 3:17BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Arttu Ruotsalainen, Robert Hagg · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 6:45WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 17:47WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 18:56BUFColin MillerAssists: Mark Pysyk, Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:44BUFTage Thompson: Holding2 min
- P1 10:07WSHCarl Hagelin: Holding2 min
- P2 14:49WSHCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:45BUFCody Eakin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:40WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P3 16:31BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Asplund – Thompson12:40
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen7:49
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons9:09
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens11:46
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hagg2:08
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Dahlin13:38
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson12:14
xG 0.29–0.37 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJonsson-Fjallby – Leason – McMichael5:00
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hathaway – McMichael3:44
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway3:31
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:39
xG 0.66–0.76 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 3–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk13:07
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Orlov – Jensen13:32
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:38
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).