Sat, Nov 13, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 28 | 213 | 526 |
| BUF | 113 | 17 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43TORDavid KampfAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:42BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Colin Miller, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:18TOROndrej KaseAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:28TORMichael BuntingAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 17:33BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:22TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 10:47BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 11:46BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Arttu Ruotsalainen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 19:48TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:47TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:27TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:26BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Kampf10:08
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Ritchie – Marner12:33
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Bunting – Semyonov6:47
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 1–2
- Nylander – Kase – Matthews12:48
xG 0.24–0.64 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Holl17:18
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Brodie – Rielly19:22
xG 0.51–0.70 (42%)attempts 16–20goals 3–0
- Dermott – Liljegren12:58
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Asplund – Thompson15:29
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens11:54
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons11:29
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen8:08
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson18:24
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Dahlin15:22
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Hagg – Dahlin3:02
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).