Sat, Nov 13, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 012 | 312 | 331 |
| OTT | 06 | 414 | 24 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:21OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 10:40OTTMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 11:07OTTParker KellyAssists: Logan Shaw, Lassi Thomson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 17:49OTTTim StützlePPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 9:40OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 11:49PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Mark Friedman, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 12:55PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 15:57PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 19:11OTTDrake BathersonENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Backhand, 0.77 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 17:12OTTZachary Sanford: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:19OTTLassi Thomson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41PITJohn Marino: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:37PITJuuso Riikola: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:10PITJeff Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 6:43PITMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues11:52
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 19–5goals 2–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen9:28
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Aston-Reese – O'Connor7:54
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Rust – Guentzel11:23
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Joseph14:50
xG 1.32–0.26 (83%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Friedman – Riikola11:05
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Matheson15:56
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Sanford – Sokolov5:26
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ennis – Norris – Tkachuk4:01
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk4:46
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sanford – Norris – Tkachuk3:41
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker2:37
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Thomson3:10
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Heatherington – Chabot2:22
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).