Sat, Nov 13, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 211 | 09 | 02 | 228 |
| TBL | 16 | 19 | 07 | 12 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Ross Colton, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 9:02TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Boris Katchouk, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 12:59FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Lucas Carlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 13:35FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Ryan Lomberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:13TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:20TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:20FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:46TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:46FLAPatric Hornqvist: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:27TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Bennett6:29
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov6:40
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett4:26
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Lundell4:24
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Weegar2:06
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad16:50
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Carlsson8:39
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli13:20
xG 1.11–0.62 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton9:02
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:41
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph9:24
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Bogosian14:12
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Rutta2:04
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote12:26
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).