Sat, Nov 13, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 07 | 111 | 123 |
| NSH | 26 | 17 | 111 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:14NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:12NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:02NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 5:54NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 13:30ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:42NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:42ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel: Instigator2 min
- P1 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P1 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki: Kneeing5 min
- P1 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 14:55NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:47ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:04NSHTommy Novak: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:49ARIJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P2 19:47NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:59NSHMathieu Olivier: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:44ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Galchenyuk5:02
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – O'Brien – Hayton6:27
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Roussel3:13
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Jaskin3:08
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayo – Dineen6:54
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Chychrun7:53
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin4:51
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Novak – Tolvanen6:45
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier9:14
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jeannot – Tomasino8:32
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin9:54
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning9:50
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:42
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro4:33
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).