Mon, Nov 15, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 012 | 08 | 126 |
| TBL | 213 | 03 | 212 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:16TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:22TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 13:28TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 15:30TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:04TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04NYIZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:16NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:19TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:11TBLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 12:56NYIBrock Nelson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:56NYIBrock Nelson: Charging2 min
- P2 14:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:39NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:39NYIZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:39NYIZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:39TBLBoris Katchouk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:57NYIZach Parise: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Pageau – Bellows8:10
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Lee – Barzal9:26
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier9:41
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Pageau3:39
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Pulock7:54
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Aho9:54
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Colton2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:45
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:52
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli7:15
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Bogosian13:51
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote10:43
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta13:03
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).