Wed, Nov 17, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 07 | 311 | 430 |
| VAN | 012 | 115 | 17 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:52VANConor GarlandAssists: Jason Dickinson, Tucker Poolman · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 1:30VANTucker PoolmanAssists: Tyler Motte, Juho Lammikko · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:19COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P3 3:12COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:49COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:56VANVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:12COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P2 2:05COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:35VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:06VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:10COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P3 1:39VANAlex Chiasson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:02VANQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kadri – Nichushkin – Aube-Kubel2:44
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – Rantanen3:54
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook7:00
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Landeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor7:13
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:46
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:29
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Murray – Girard3:10
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson14:05
xG 0.98–0.19 (84%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Garland – Podkolzin9:41
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Motte – Lammikko6:08
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander9:52
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes15:21
xG 1.00–0.33 (75%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Poolman – Hughes2:51
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson9:43
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).