Wed, Nov 24, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 016 | 112 | 137 |
| PIT | 016 | 315 | 16 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49PITBryan RustPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:29PITEvan RodriguesGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 15:20PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Brock McGinn, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 14:52VANBo HorvatAssists: Luke Schenn · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:00PITBrock McGinnENAssists: Teddy Blueger, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:25VANJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:36VANBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:59VANKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59PITJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51VANKyle Burroughs: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:32VANJuho Lammikko: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:35PITBrian Dumoulin: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Motte – Horvat4:40
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dickinson – Lammikko2:51
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Motte – Pettersson2:57
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin3:06
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson9:29
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes8:17
xG 0.18–0.19 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Poolman5:27
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Rodrigues – Simon5:26
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen9:51
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese9:58
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:17
xG 0.62–0.73 (46%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:00
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ruhwedel10:56
xG 0.36–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:12
xG 0.23–0.41 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).