Sat, Nov 27, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 113 | 18 | 00 | 228 |
| DET | 011 | 218 | 011 | 11 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:05BUFDylan CozensAssists: Brett Murray, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 9:56DETCarter RowneyAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 11:15DETPius SuterAssists: Givani Smith, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 18:23BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Cody Eakin, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:26DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:49DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min
- P1 17:49BUFRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:57BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:28BUFKyle Okposo: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:07BUFColin Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Murray – Cozens11:07
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Hayden9:48
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:06
xG 0.12–0.92 (11%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Bjork – Asplund8:54
xG 0.22–1.20 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin2:46
xG 0.07–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin4:59
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Hagg2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond14:00
xG 1.23–0.32 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Zadina8:54
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Smith – Suter6:58
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen11:19
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Lindstrom15:15
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Seider15:27
xG 0.98–0.35 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Leddy – Hronek18:47
xG 0.85–0.41 (67%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).