Thu, Dec 2, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 115 | 15 | 228 |
| TBL | 113 | 012 | 310 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Ross Colton, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 14:07STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Scott Perunovich · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:26TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:16STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Scott Perunovich, Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 8:09TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 10:29TBLVictor HedmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:46STLNiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:40TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:32TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:50STLJake Walman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:21STLNiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:03TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:58TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:35
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Kyrou12:33
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Saad – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:18
xG 0.19–0.85 (18%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Walman2:38
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko2:10
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug3:16
xG 0.11–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare9:08
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Barré-Boulet6:01
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Fortier7:16
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton9:26
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:23
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:03
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev13:11
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).