Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 5, Ottawa Senators 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 16 | 211 | 01 | 531 |
| OTT | 212 | 315 | 07 | 11 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26COLDarren HelmAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Alex Newhook · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:28OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 5:57OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Dylan Gambrell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 8:19COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 1:13OTTTim StützleAssists: Connor Brown, Nick Paul · Other, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 2:49OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
- P2 7:46OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Drake Batherson, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 9:36COLAlex NewhookUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 1:52COLTyson JostAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Johnson · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 18:40COLDevon ToewsAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.08 xG5–5
- OT 0:51OTTBrady TkachukGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:12OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:24COLAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:29COLAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:23OTTAlex Formenton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Aube-Kubel – Newhook3:29
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:18
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rantanen – O'Connor5:05
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon8:37
xG 0.12–0.77 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Johnson – MacDonald3:09
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard17:46
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard5:13
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk14:48
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Stützle10:42
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton8:29
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell7:23
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev22:18
xG 0.88–0.46 (65%)attempts 21–21goals 1–0
- Holden – Zub16:59
xG 0.92–0.60 (61%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Heatherington – Thomson9:23
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).