Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 13 | 111 | 18 | 01 | 323 |
| DET | 212 | 16 | 07 | 15 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45NYICal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 5:18DETFilip HronekAssists: Adam Erne, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 7:37DETSam GagnerAssists: Givani Smith, Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:49NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:19DETGivani SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 12:33NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:33DETMoritz SeiderGWGAssists: Pius Suter, Filip Zadina · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:19NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:19NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:19NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:19DETAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:02NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:11DETSam Gagner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:09DETGivani Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:29DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Parise – Clutterbuck – Martin2:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal9:51
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Pageau – Bellows4:36
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson2:44
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson10:31
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Mayfield10:00
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen9:46
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Smith5:35
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Rowney2:23
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – Fabbri – Raymond14:14
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Seider4:24
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindstrom7:22
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Hronek4:26
xG 0.10–0.10 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).