Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 320 | 011 | 05 | 1 | 342 |
| MIN | 19 | 27 | 022 | 02 | 2 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 5:21MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Jonas Brodin, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:07MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 12:47TORJason SpezzaAssists: Nick Ritchie, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 17:51TORJason SpezzaPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:10TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. TOR Ondrej Kase stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 5. MIN Kirill Kaprizov scored
- 6. TOR William Nylander stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:48MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:59MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:59TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:34TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:49MINKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:43TOROndrej Kase: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:21MINJordie Benn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30MINAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46TORMorgan Rielly: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:58TORDavid Kampf: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:01MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Ritchie – Matthews2:03
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Matthews3:10
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Spezza – Bunting – Matthews5:28
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:35
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly17:48
xG 1.08–0.58 (65%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
- Dermott – Sandin10:50
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:08
xG 0.16–0.77 (17%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Fiala – Pitlick8:42
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:53
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:10
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm10:23
xG 0.08–0.59 (13%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:44
xG 0.97–0.58 (63%)attempts 22–17goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Merrill15:12
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulikov12:13
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).