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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

MIN winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:13Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Campbell
  3. P1 3:22Shot by Dumba, saved by Campbell
  4. P1 5:48Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbell
  5. P1 6:15Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbell
  6. P1 7:02Shot by Engvall, saved by Talbot
  7. P1 7:32Shot by Kampf, saved by Talbot
  8. P1 8:06Shot by Bunting, saved by Talbot
  9. P1 8:31Shot by Muzzin, saved by Talbot
  10. P1 11:48Eriksson Ek: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Tavares, Rielly, Bunting, Matthews

  11. P1 12:03Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  12. P1 13:49Shot by Kampf, saved by Talbot
  13. P1 15:34Shot by Rask, saved by Campbell
  14. P1 17:05Shot by Greenway, saved by Campbell
  15. P1 17:30Shot by Foligno, saved by Campbell
  16. P1 17:59Foligno: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Bunting, Matthews

  17. P1 17:59Simmonds: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Bunting, Matthews

  18. P1 19:34Shot by Dumba, saved by Campbell
  19. P1 19:36Goal by Greenway (Eriksson Ek, Dumba)+22 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek, Duhaime · TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Matthews

  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 0:34Rielly: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Goligoski, Zuccarello, Merrill, Hartman, Kaprizov · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Kerfoot, Nylander

  23. P2 1:27Shot by Engvall, saved by Talbot5v4
  24. P2 2:49Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  25. P2 2:49Fiala: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Goligoski, Dumba, Fiala, Greenway, Sturm · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Nylander, Dermott, Kampf

  26. P2 3:20Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  27. P2 3:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  28. P2 3:31Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Campbell4v5
  29. P2 3:40Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Campbell4v5
  30. P2 4:43Kase: Tripping (2 min)4v5

    On ice: MIN Goligoski, Benn, Hartman, Sturm · TOR Nylander, Ritchie, Engvall, Kase, Sandin

  31. P2 5:21Goal by Zuccarello (Brodin, Kaprizov)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Zuccarello, Brodin, Hartman, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Kampf

  32. P2 5:54Dermott: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Goligoski, Merrill, Rask, Fiala, Pitlick · TOR Spezza, Ritchie, Dermott, Anderson, Sandin

  33. P2 6:40Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Campbell5v4
  34. P2 7:59Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbell
  35. P2 8:07Goal by Foligno (Eriksson Ek)+7 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews

  36. P2 10:45Shot by Dumba, saved by Campbell
  37. P2 11:53Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  38. P2 12:00Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  39. P2 12:10Shot by Dermott, saved by Talbot
  40. P2 12:17Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  41. P2 12:34Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  42. P2 12:47Goal by Spezza (Ritchie, Rielly)+6 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Benn, Kulikov, Zuccarello, Hartman, Kaprizov · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Ritchie

  43. P2 13:46Shot by Kase, saved by Talbot
  44. P2 14:25Shot by Muzzin, saved by Talbot
  45. P2 15:05Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  46. P2 15:22Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Talbot
  47. P2 16:34Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  48. P2 17:18Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  49. P2 17:20Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  50. P2 17:21Benn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Benn, Kulikov, Zuccarello, Hartman, Kaprizov · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews

  51. P2 17:51Goal by Spezza (Matthews, Rielly)4v5+13 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Eriksson Ek · TOR Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews

  52. P2 18:30Goligoski: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Goligoski, Zuccarello, Merrill, Hartman, Kaprizov · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Ritchie, Kampf

  53. P2 19:03Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  54. P2 19:10Goal by Matthews (Spezza, Rielly)4v5+23 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Kulikov, Merrill, Duhaime, Sturm · TOR Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews

  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 0:22Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  58. P3 0:58Shot by Spezza, saved by Talbot
  59. P3 1:47Shot by Kulikov, saved by Campbell
  60. P3 2:07Shot by Kase, saved by Talbot
  61. P3 2:51Shot by Merrill, saved by Campbell
  62. P3 3:33Shot by Hartman, saved by Campbell
  63. P3 3:38Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Campbell
  64. P3 3:45Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Campbell
  65. P3 4:46Rielly: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TOR Spezza, Brodie, Rielly, Bunting, Matthews

  66. P3 4:49Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Campbell5v4
  67. P3 4:56Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Campbell6v4
  68. P3 4:58Kampf: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: MIN Zuccarello, Brodin, Hartman, Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kase, Kampf

  69. P3 5:43Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Campbell5v3
  70. P3 5:59Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Campbell5v3
  71. P3 6:29Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Campbell5v3
  72. P3 6:39Shot by Hartman, saved by Campbell5v3
  73. P3 6:43Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Campbell5v3
  74. P3 6:59Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  75. P3 7:58Shot by Foligno, saved by Campbell
  76. P3 8:15Shot by Bjugstad, saved by Campbell
  77. P3 8:21Shot by Bjugstad, saved by Campbell
  78. P3 9:00Shot by Sturm, saved by Campbell
  79. P3 10:45Shot by Ritchie, saved by Talbot
  80. P3 10:56Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  81. P3 11:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  82. P3 12:41Shot by Spezza, saved by Talbot
  83. P3 13:19Shot by Brodin, saved by Campbell
  84. P3 13:51Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbell
  85. P3 14:21Shot by Pitlick, saved by Campbell
  86. P3 15:39Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  87. P3 17:11Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  88. P3 17:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  89. P3 18:31Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbell
  90. P3 19:43Shot by Foligno, saved by Campbell
  91. P3 19:59Shot by Kulikov, saved by Campbell
  92. P3 0:00Period end
  93. OT 0:00Period start
  94. OT 1:22Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot3v3
  95. OT 1:32Shot by Muzzin, saved by Talbot3v3
  96. OT 2:34Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot3v3
  97. OT 3:10Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot3v3
  98. OT 3:35Shot by Dumba, saved by Campbell3v3
  99. OT 3:47Shot by Brodin, saved by Campbell3v3
  100. OT 4:01Brodin: Slashing (2 min)3v3

    On ice: MIN Brodin, Fiala, Eriksson Ek · TOR Spezza, Rielly, Matthews

  101. OT 4:55Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot3v4
  102. OT 5:00Period endother
  103. SO Period start
  104. SO Goal by Zuccarello, unassistedother
  105. SO Shot by Fiala, saved by Campbellother
  106. SO Goal by Matthews, unassistedother
  107. SO Goal by Kaprizov, unassistedother
  108. SO Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbotother
  109. SO Period endother
  110. SO Final