Thu, Dec 9, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 29 | 19 | 527 |
| TOR | 212 | 015 | 111 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44TOROndrej KasePPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:57TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:16TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 19:53TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 4:02TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Taylor Raddysh · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 9:11TBLTaylor RaddyshGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 9:36TOROndrej KaseAssists: Jake Muzzin, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 19:31TBLOndrej PalatENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:31TBLTaylor Raddysh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:13TORWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:23TORKristians Rubins: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:06TOROndrej Kase: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNash – Katchouk – Fortier7:42
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Raddysh11:12
xG 0.75–0.79 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Colton10:46
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:21
xG 0.16–0.87 (16%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Rutta16:16
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote13:26
xG 0.33–0.80 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Bogosian15:13
xG 0.59–1.37 (30%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Bunting – Matthews11:17
xG 1.23–0.22 (85%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Ritchie – Kase3:08
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Kampf6:35
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews3:53
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Liljegren11:50
xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly18:20
xG 1.46–0.76 (66%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Holl – Rubins5:48
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).