Sat, Dec 11, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 013 | 117 | 02 | 2 | 342 |
| BUF | 113 | 110 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40WSHLars EllerAssists: Conor Sheary, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:48BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Robert Hagg, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:09BUFWill ButcherAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:41WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. WSH Daniel Sprong scored
- 3. BUF Dylan Cozens stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. BUF Victor Olofsson scored
- 6. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:13BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:16BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 4:36WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Sgarbossa – Sprong9:28
xG 1.24–0.40 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas14:51
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Leason – McMichael5:43
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Sheary12:01
xG 0.56–0.95 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Irwin12:41
xG 1.60–0.47 (77%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:47
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:27
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Hayden – Asplund8:07
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Okposo – Murray – Cozens13:40
xG 0.69–0.78 (47%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Bjork9:40
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson13:22
xG 0.41–0.81 (33%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin21:25
xG 0.96–0.62 (61%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Hagg – Bryson12:24
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
- Pysyk – Butcher14:10
xG 0.49–1.40 (26%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).