Sat, Dec 11, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 08 | 07 | 025 |
| OTT | 15 | 213 | 15 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:40OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 3:32OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 5:31OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 16:17OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.62 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:15OTTDylan Gambrell: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:07TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:47OTTAlex Formenton: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:05TBLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16TBLBoris Katchouk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:03OTTChris Tierney: Holding2 min
- P2 14:56OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:06OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 17:27OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:27TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:27TBLCorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNash – Katchouk – Fortier10:19
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Colton8:43
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Raddysh6:56
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:27
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Foote5:16
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Claesson2:37
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev9:00
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Formenton – Stützle9:13
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford5:47
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:32
xG 0.39–0.40 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Watson – Paul – Gambrell6:37
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zaitsev11:00
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub3:34
xG 0.13–0.15 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Zaitsev2:49
xG 0.02–0.20 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).