Fri, Dec 17, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 110 | 15 | 01 | 221 |
| PIT | 121 | 110 | 015 | 12 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:45PITBrock McGinnAssists: Mike Matheson, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 12:35BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Casey Fitzgerald, John Hayden · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 14:42BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:53PITJeff CarterGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:21BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:17PITZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:17BUFTage Thompson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:25PITDominik Simon: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:09PITSam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:23BUFColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07PITMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:22BUFTage Thompson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:55PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Girgensons – Hayden11:29
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – Asplund – Thompson5:52
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Eakin – Skinner – Hinostroza5:59
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Asplund4:55
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fitzgerald – Bryson12:50
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Miller12:12
xG 0.26–0.89 (23%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:17
xG 0.13–0.84 (13%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese11:43
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Carter – Zucker – Heinen11:01
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Simon – O'Connor7:03
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Crosby – Kapanen – Rodrigues13:01
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel13:08
xG 1.17–0.31 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino14:57
xG 0.84–0.06 (93%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin18:18
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).