Thu, Feb 10, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 112 | 016 | 238 |
| COL | 224 | 112 | 011 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 6:16COLDevon ToewsAssists: Nazem Kadri, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 10:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Jan Rutta · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 1:56COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 15:54TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:17TBLOndrej Palat: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:04COLAlex Newhook: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:43TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 0:22TBLJan Rutta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:40COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 6:36COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P3 9:18COLJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:18TBLAnthony Cirelli: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point11:43
xG 1.03–0.61 (63%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli4:57
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:40
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph5:29
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev2:26
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev3:09
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta11:34
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:21
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 24–6goals 1–0
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – Jost4:37
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor3:33
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Compher – Sikura – O'Connor4:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:46
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 27–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard7:39
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar4:21
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).