Tue, Dec 21, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 28 | 16 | 419 |
| VGK | 117 | 211 | 013 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05TBLGabriel FortierAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 9:26VGKMark StonePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 1:41VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:10VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:07TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 17:50TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:13TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:04TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22VGKChandler Stephenson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:16TBLJan Rutta: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:16VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Colton9:22
xG 0.38–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare12:32
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Cirelli3:32
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Raddysh – Fortier5:16
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev5:51
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Foote6:28
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian13:06
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson5:32
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Carrier – Amadio – Howden5:43
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stephenson – Janmark6:59
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy5:07
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud19:02
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Hutton – Miromanov6:44
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Hutton – Coghlan5:08
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).