Sun, Feb 13, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 19 | 15 | 426 |
| WSH | 07 | 115 | 012 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34OTTAlex FormentonSHAssists: Connor Brown, Nikita Zaitsev · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:11OTTAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Zachary Sanford, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 0:46WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 18:24OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Joshua Brown, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 10:29OTTConnor BrownAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:25WSHConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:08OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:49OTTAlex Formenton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45WSHJohn Carlson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 13:01WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:53OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:30WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:30OTTNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:46WSHConor Sheary: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:40WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P3 17:33OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Brown – Tkachuk2:04
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Tkachuk9:52
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford5:58
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bishop – Kastelic – Kelly4:04
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev12:43
xG 0.93–0.37 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Brown – Brannstrom8:19
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Holden – Zub14:45
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Snively8:34
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Sprong – McMichael9:35
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Sheary12:01
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:58
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk10:55
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen10:43
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:03
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).