Tue, Dec 28, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 110 | 212 | 00 | 431 |
| TBL | 210 | 117 | 18 | 12 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:46MTLLukas VejdemoAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 11:38TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:10TBLBrayden PointAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 2:05MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Sami Niku, Corey Schueneman · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 8:11TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 6:11MTLKale ClagueAssists: Cole Caufield, Ryan Poehling · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 13:09MTLDavid SavardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:40TBLCorey PerryAssists: Alex Killorn, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–4
- OT 0:36TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:24TBLGabriel Fortier: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:53MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:54TBLRiley Nash: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:03TBLBoris Katchouk: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 15:18MTLMichael Pezzetta: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:49TBLGabriel Fortier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Evans – Ylonen7:02
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Paquette – Vejdemo – Pezzetta7:59
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Drouin – Suzuki11:59
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Poehling – Harvey-Pinard – Caufield7:25
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Romanov15:44
xG 1.14–0.56 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Niku – Schueneman7:48
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kulak – Clague13:17
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Raddysh7:40
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Point – Joseph12:12
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton8:36
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Nash – Katchouk – Fortier6:04
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:13
xG 1.01–0.37 (73%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Bogosian14:20
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Day – Foote6:31
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).